黑河流域中游荒漠区沙尘暴、扬沙和浮尘监测及其与气候因子的关系

[目的] 分析黑河流域中游荒漠区沙尘暴、扬沙以及浮尘频次和时长的月变化和年变化，并分析其与主要气候因子的关系，为区域沙尘天气的早期预警和荒漠区的经营和管理提供依据。[方法] 利用黑河流域红沙窝荒漠化综合防治试验站的2010—2019年的沙尘天气监测数据和气象数据进行分析。[结果] 沙尘频次和时长主要集中在春季，其次是冬季，春冬两季的频次和时长各占全年的82.3%和79.4%。10 a间沙尘暴和扬沙频次总体变化趋势逐渐减少，而浮尘频次总体变化趋势逐年增加；沙尘时长总体变化趋势逐年增加。沙尘频次月变化与土壤湿度（10 cm）和大气湿度之间呈极显著负相关（p<0.01），与风速之间呈极显著正相关（p<0.01）。扬沙年际发生频次与土壤温度（5 cm）之间呈显著负相关（p<0.05），与大气温度之间呈极显著负相关（p<0.01）。[结论] 近10 a来，黑河流域中游荒漠区的沙尘天气主要发生在春季和冬季，破坏性较大的沙尘暴和扬沙逐年减少，而浮尘逐年增加。沙尘频次的月变化主要影响因素是浅层土壤湿度、大气湿度和风速。春季的浅层土壤湿度影响了沙尘暴和扬沙年际频次变化，浅层土壤温度影响了浮尘年际频次变化；冬季的浅层土壤温湿度和降水量影响了沙尘暴的年际频次变化，浅层土壤温度和大气温度影响了扬沙的年际频次变化。     

基于GIS的海南岛芒果气候适宜性精细化区划研究

以海南岛18个国家气象站1966—2019年的日观测数据为基础,对海南岛18个市（县）芒果单产的气象产量与其各生育期气温、降水、日照、相对湿度等做相关分析,选取花期平均气温、果实发育期平均气温、年≥10 ℃积温作为区划指标,同时考虑坡度因素的影响,采用集优法基于GIS开展了海南岛芒果种植精细化气候区划。结果表明,海南岛芒果种植气候适宜区主要分布在昌江、东方、乐东、三亚、陵水、万宁、琼海等西部南部和东部市（县）的沿海乡（镇）,不适宜区主要分布在五指山大部、白沙南部、昌江南部、乐东东北部、三亚北部、陵水北部等市（县）地形陡峭的山地,其余为次适宜区。区划结果可为海南岛芒果种植布局规划和产业结构调整提供科学依据。     

气象因子对芒果园桔小实蝇种群动态的影响

桔小实蝇[Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel)]是芒果的重要害虫之一。试验利用性引诱剂对芒果园桔小实蝇的全年种群动态进行监测，分析气象因子与其种群数量变动的相关性。结果表明，芒果园桔小实蝇雄虫种群数量一年有2个明显高峰，2月为短时高峰，3月种群活动有所下降；5月开始数量逐渐升高，至8月达到高峰，9月开始逐渐下降，到12月至1月为发生低谷。经逐步回归分析发现，气象因子显著影响桔小实蝇雄虫的数量，主要受月平均气温、月平均最低气温和月降水量综合影响。     

鄂尔多斯高原沙地柏液流通量及其影响因子

[目的]分析沙地柏液流通量变化特征及主要影响因子,为沙地植被的保护提供理论依据。[方法]以鄂尔多斯高原沙地植被的优势种沙地柏为研究对象,利用热扩散(TDP)技术监测生长季沙地柏的液流动态,通过相关分析和回归分析等研究其与气象因子的关系。[结果]晴天沙地柏的液流通量为单峰曲线,干旱时为双峰曲线。雨天沙地柏的液流通量为单峰或双峰曲线。晴天沙地柏液流通量的最大值是2.30～23.38 g/(cm~2·h)。沙地柏液流通量对降雨的响应具有1～4 d的时滞。生长季沙地柏液流通量与光合有效辐射、水汽压亏缺、气温和风速均呈显著正相关,而与相对湿度和降雨量呈显著负相关。[结论]鄂尔多斯高原沙地柏的液流通量随天气而变化。太阳辐射和水分是沙地柏液流通量的主要影响因子。建议当地加强对沙地柏灌丛的保护,防止由于过度水分消耗导致的植被退化。     

GFDL-ESM2M气候模式下京津冀地区未来潜在蒸散量时空变化

为探究未来潜在蒸散量时空变化特征,该研究以京津冀地区为例,基于美国GFDL提供的GFDL-ESM2M全球气候模式,得到京津冀地区92个格点2000-2050年的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、太阳总辐射、平均相对湿度和近地面平均风速,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算京津冀地区未来92个格点的逐日潜在蒸散量(ET0),分析其时空分布特征及其与气象要素的相关关系。结果表明:未来年ET0总体呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下ET0上升速度最快,且随着时间推移增幅越来越大。夏季ET0增长速度最快,其次为春季、秋季与冬季,意味着未来ET0季节差异将愈加明显,可能出现更为严重的季节性干旱。ET0空间分布呈由西南向东北逐渐递减趋势,其中中部地区增速最快,增长趋势由中部向南北递减。不同气候情景下平均气温均呈逐年上升趋势,风速、太阳总辐射略微上升,而相对湿度下降。ET0与太阳总辐射的相关系数最大,呈由东北向西南递增趋势,其次为最高气温,呈由西北向东南递增趋势。ET0与相对湿度变化呈显著负相关,相关系数绝对值呈东北向西南递增趋势,ET0与风速相关度不明显。该研究可为农业需水预测与灌溉管理、科学应对气候变化提供基础支撑。     

牛胃肠炎发生原因及防治

胃肠炎是家畜生长中的常见病和高发病,牛具有很高的发病率。造成胃肠炎发生的原因是饲养管理不到位、饲料营养价值较差,饲料不足,牛出现营养不良,身体抵抗能力下降,使消化机能变差,进入消化道中的饲料不能很好的吸收,肠鸣音大,饲料随着肠道的蠕动排出体外。临床上主要表现为腹泻、身体脱水、生长发育不良。由于牛胃肠炎的发生机理还不明确,病因比较复杂,在疾病诊治期间应尝试明确实际的发病愿意,对动物进行对症防治,确保牛健康生长。该文主要论述牛胃肠炎的发生原因和防治措施。     

青藏高原东部强降温过程阈值的探讨及其气候特征

为解决青藏高原东部强降温的气象预报和服务问题,利用青藏高原东北部68个气象站1961-2017年逐日最低气温数据,辅以趋势分析及相关分析等方法,本文探讨了近57年青藏高原东北部强降温的阈值及气候特征,并利用NECP/NCAR(2.5°×2.5°)海温场、高度场建立了预报诊断模型。研究发现 (1) 应用改进的强降温指标统计寒潮发生的特征更符合高原实际情况。(2)受地形地貌及山脉阻挡的影响,青藏高原东部强降温次数的地域分布存在明显差异,海拔较高的山区和东部地区强降温次数明显多于盆地。南部山区24h寒潮发生的次数多于48h、72h。(3)近57年区域寒潮频次总体呈下降趋势,南部和北部的降速分别为-0.5次/10a、-0.4次/10a,并通过显著性检验；西北部盆地区降速分别为-0.1次/10a,未通过显著性检验。(4)高冷空气的移动路径是强降温预测的关键信号。研究结果为青藏高原相关部门开展农牧业资源的和旅游资源的相关决策服务提供科学依据。     

Effects of agriculture,climate, and policy on NDVI change in a semi-arid river basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau

In 1999, the Grain for Green Project was implemented by the Chinese government. Since then, the vegetation of Zuli River Basin, a semi-arid river basin of the Chinese Loess Plateau, has been greatly changed. Clearly understanding the impact of natural and artificial factors on vegetation change is important for policy making and ecosystem management. In this study, spatio-temporal variations in vegetation cover in Chinese Zuli River Basin during 1999–2016 were investigated using Landsat normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Analyses of several indicators, including changes in NDVI in different slopes and land use changes and the relationships between climatic factors and NDVI change, were presented to quantitatively evaluate the effects of agriculture, climate, and policy on NDVI change. The NDVI in the Zuli River Basin increased during the study period, and the main contributors to this change were forest in 1999–2011, cropland, abandoned farmland, and grassland in 2009–2016, and land with slopes ≤ 15°. Land with slope > 15°, where the “Project” was implemented, slightly contributed to the increase in regional NDVI. In 1999–2011, the project (?98.16%) combined with climate change (?68.18%) showed negative effects on the increase in NDVI in the Zuli River Basin, but agriculture (22.28%) played a positive role in increasing this index. In 2009–2016 and 1999–2016, the project (38.45% and 35.25%, respectively), the project combined with climate change (49.83% and 46.30%, respectively), agriculture (18.61% and 23.30%, respectively), promoted increases in NDVI in the basin.     

Interaction between climate and management on beta diversity components of vegetation in relation to soil properties in arid and semi-arid oak forests,Iran

This study aimed to investigate the interaction between regions with different climatic conditions(arid vs. semi-arid) and management(protected vs. unprotected) on the turnover and nestedness of vegetation in relation to physical, chemical and biological properties of soils in the Ilam Province of Iran. In each of the two regions, we sampled 8 sites(4 managed and 4 unmanaged sites) within each of which we established 4 circular plots(1000 m~2) that were used to investigate woody species, while two micro-plots(1 m×1 m) were established in each 1000-m~2 plot to analyze herbaceous species. In each sample unit, we also extracted three soil samples(0–20 cm depth) for measuring soil properties. The results indicated that the interaction between region and conservational management significantly affected the percent of canopy cover of Persian oak(Quercus brantii Linddl), soil respiration, substrate-induced respiration, as well as beta and gamma diversities and turnover of plant species. The percent of oak canopy cover was positively correlated with soil silt, electrical conductivity, available potassium, and alpha diversity, whereas it was negatively correlated with plant turnover. In addition, plant turnover was positively related to available phosphorus, while nestedness of species was positively related to organic carbon and total nitrogen. According to these results, we concluded that physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of limited ecological niche generally influenced plant diversity. Also, this study demonstrated the major contribution of the beta diversity on gamma diversity, especially in semi-arid region, because of the higher heterogeneity of vegetation in this area.     

我国松毛虫发生率的空间分布格局及其驱动因子

了解我国松毛虫发生的空间分布格局及其驱动因子, 对松毛虫暴发的预防?控制和治理具有重要意义?本研究基于我国各行政区2004年-2012年间每年松毛虫发生面积及其寄主植物面积, 使用一般线性模型分析气候因子是否以及如何驱动我国松毛虫发生的空间分布格局?结果表明:在全国尺度上, 最暖季降水量是松毛虫发生的主要气候驱动因子, 松毛虫平均发生率与最暖季降水量显著正相关?在最暖季降水量的作用下, 我国松毛虫的发生呈现明显的空间分布格局, 最暖季降水量较高的南方和北方部分地区松毛虫发生率较高, 而降水量较低的西北和青藏地区松毛虫发生率较低?我们的研究结果可为松毛虫暴发的预防和管理工作提供指导?